By Tom O'Neil of Goldderby

Critic Tom O'Neil's take on 2002's Lead Comedy Actress Emmy Race

Some people will do anything to be liked, including throw an Emmy race away. Apparently, Jane Kaczmarek is sick of portraying a monster momma who nobody wants to hug. This year she submitted a lightweight episode all about her happy feet as she trots off to dance class with a nitwit's smirk on her face - thereby stomping her Emmy chances. There's no perf in it. 

Thank God Sarah Jessica Parker didn't drown her Emmy chances in this comedy race again with a whiny, tear-gushing episode bereft of a single laugh (like she did last year with "Don't Ask, Don't Tell") -- or, worse, with another tasteless entry like the farting episode of "Sex and the City" that she submitted a few years ago, literally blowing her chances. In "The Real Me," she displays an impressive span of emotions and is not only likable, but downright sympathetic as she falls on her face on a runway while trying to strut her stuff like a fashion model. It's her best Emmy entry yet, but it won't win. Her face may get a good bruising here, but the episode has no impact - doesn't kick you in the gut like Messing's, Aniston's and Heaton's. 

Messing only has one big "moment" in "Bed, Bath and Beyond," but it's a doozy. She blasts away at her 3 best pals about their own doomed love histories when they drag her into the shower to snap her out of the funk she's in after getting dumped by Woody Harrelson. But, face it, Messing had a LOT more "moments" in her tape last year and lost. 

Watch out for Jennifer Aniston. She has that sneaky one-hour advantage that probably gave Helen Hunt 2 of her 4 Emmys. The "Friends" shrewdie submitted the season finale in which she FINALLY has that long-ballyhooed baby girl, which might give her another edge (hey, even heartless Hollywood voters can be suckers for kids). She's good in it, too, and has a few "moments," but they don't seem substantial -- nothing remarkable here. While watching it, I was reminded of Julianna Margulies' one-hour having-a-baby eppy of "ER" a few years ago. Frankly, it had more emotional impact (Margulies SCREAMS louder than Aniston when in labor), but it lost the drama actress race. True, Aniston's comedy entry has a quantitative edge, being twice as long as all other rivals in that category -- and that usually foretells victory -- but that wasn't the case last year when Messing lost even though she submitted the same hour tape that scored her costar an Emmy (and she was equally good in it). 

But last year Messing lost to that Emmy juggernaut Patricia Heaton, who looms large again this year because she wisely chose the "Vote for Debra" segment of "Everybody Loves Raymond" over the one pundits pressed her to pick: "The Angry Family." In "Vote," Heaton is aces as she desperately tries to win an election to become president of the governing board of her kids' elementary school. "I've been waiting for something like this," she confesses, "something I could get involved in, make a difference, use my brain!" You can't help but root for her -- she's your own mom, she's your best friend, she's you -- and your heart snaps with hers when you discover that that cad Ray, her own damn hubby, didn't vote for her! It's enough to make you want to give her your Emmy vote just so you can make everything up to this gung-ho trouper. 

There's something extraordinary and amazing about Heaton when you stack her up against the other 4 actresses in this race and watch their tapes back to back. It's not something you think about when you size this race up dispassionately, from a distance, wondering: how the hell does Heaton win every year? She doesn't win because she's pulling those Helen Hunt tricks like submitting one-hour eppys. It's because she connects so strongly with the viewer psychologically when she gets a great script to perform. There you see her -- this lovable, classy, quality gal stuck in a cheesy blue-collar life -- and you want to throw her a life preserver. Not spying one nearby, voters have been tossing her an Emmy for the past two years and, when you see the tapes, you understand why. 

Also, let's admit it: "Everybody Loves Raymond" is the best written comedy on TV, but it doesn't get the lofty credit it deserves because it looks so low rent. But add up three things -- a 24-karat actress like Heaton, a magnetically empathetic role and a script that sparkles above all others -- and it's clear why Heaton keeps getting the gold.

This Emmy race is between Aniston and Heaton. My vote is for "A Vote for Debra" if voters are still truly basing their decisions on these videotapes, as they seem to be doing when checking off ballots at home. But beware: Buzz and The Cool Factor now seem to be playing major Emmy roles like they never did back in the good old days of the judging panels. Aniston is bursting with buzz. Hmmmm … this matchup is a real cliffhanger. 

When predicting the Emmys, however, I've always found that it's safest, after watching the tapes, to bet on the nominee you'd vote for. That's Heaton. 

Expect a threepeat. 

DESCRIPTION OF EPISODE SUBMITTED BY: 

Patricia Heaton, "Everybody Loves Raymond," "A Vote for Debra" -

When Debra's invited to run for president of her kids' school governing board, she's thrilled: "I've been waiting for something like this, something I could get involved in, make a difference, use my brain!" But Ray, overwhelmed by the demands of minding the kids in her absence, is upset. He embarrasses her, albeit unintentionally, when she drags him to a pot-luck campaign party. A few days later, she comes home and announces that she lost the election, at first trying to appear cool about it, but she quickly breaks down, hurls her jacket on the floor and stomps on it. Then she discovers shocking news: Ray didn't vote for her. "How could you do that to me?" she roars, feeling betrayed. "I'm your wife! I don't care if my platform is anti-puppy, you HAVE to vote for me! You can't support me for 1 minute! We all know why you didn't vote for me. Because you were afraid that, if I won, you might have to get off your butt once in a while and do something. You want me locked in this house. Your vote was a vote for slavery! A marriage is supposed to be about two people supporting each other!" 

Ray feels humiliated, but then hears shocking news about Debra betraying HIM: she admits that, at the campaign dinner, she pretended she didn't know him. She tries to explain: "You were stuffing your pants with food!" 

Wounded and upset, he fires back: "You're supposed to support me - whatever's in my pants!" 

She agrees. They apologize to each other and hug.